Halmstad
24%
Fair odds 4.17
Mjallby
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.15
The prediction
- 0–114%
- 1–113%
- 0–012%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Halmstad | Draw | Mjallby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| Elo model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Mjallby
Mjallby are rated 155 points above Halmstad (1387 to 1232), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Halmstad
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Halmstad's chance of winning and takes the same from Mjallby's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Mjallby
Expected goals 0.9 to 1.3. Halmstad score 0.5 a match against an average side (19th in Allsvenskan); Mjallby concede 1.6 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Halmstad LLWLL, lost 12 rating points; Mjallby WDWLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Mjallby
Halmstad won 1, drew 2 and lost 5 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HalmstadMjallbyHalmstad
5/10 over 2.5
7 scored
17 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/23
10/28
11/03
Mjallby
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
10 conceded
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/29
11/02
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Halmstad | Draw | Mjallby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Halmstad | 23%4.40 | 9%11.16 | 4%26.04 |
| Level | 2%62.50 | 19%5.32 | 19%5.34 |
| Mjallby | 0%— | 1%— | 25%4.07 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Halmstad wins5Mjallby wins- L Mjallby vs Halmstad 2-0
- L Mjallby vs Halmstad 1-0
- L Halmstad vs Mjallby 1-3
- L Mjallby vs Halmstad 3-1
- L Halmstad vs Mjallby 1-3
- D Halmstad vs Mjallby 1-1
- W Mjallby vs Halmstad 0-2
- D Mjallby vs Halmstad 0-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Halmstad's side.