Hamburg
8%
Fair odds 13.12
Bayern Munich
Model pick
80%
Fair odds 1.24
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hamburg | Draw | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 8% | 12% | 80% |
| Elo model | 8% | 20% | 72% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich are rated 332 points above Hamburg (1772 to 1440), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hamburg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 5 points to Hamburg's chance of winning and takes the same from Bayern Munich's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bayern Munich
Expected goals 1.0 to 3.2. Hamburg score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in Bundesliga); Bayern Munich concede 0.9 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Hamburg LLWWW, gained 10 rating points; Bayern Munich WDWDW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
HamburgBayern MunichHamburg
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
22 conceded
05/10
05/16
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bayern Munich
9/10 over 2.5
34 scored
12 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/18
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-4
- 1-4
- 1-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hamburg | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg | 5%20.75 | 4%26.74 | 7%15.06 |
| Level | 2%40.16 | 6%17.27 | 24%4.09 |
| Bayern Munich | 0%— | 2%51.28 | 50%2.01 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Hamburg wins1Bayern Munich wins- D Hamburg vs Bayern Munich 2-2
- L Bayern Munich vs Hamburg 5-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hamburg's side.