Hartlepool
24%
Fair odds 4.10
Southend
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.96
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hartlepool | Draw | Southend | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Elo model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Southend
Southend are rated 132 points above Hartlepool (1150 to 1019), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hartlepool
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hartlepool's chance of winning and takes the same from Southend's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Southend
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.8. Hartlepool score 0.5 a match against an average side (22nd in National League); Southend concede 2.5 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Hartlepool LLWWL, barely moved; Southend LDDWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Hartlepool
Hartlepool won 2, drew 4 and lost 0 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HartlepoolSouthendHartlepool
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
23 conceded
09/16
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/27
10/31
Southend
9/10 over 2.5
26 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hartlepool | Draw | Southend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | 13%7.96 | 4%22.62 | 3%36.76 |
| Level | 10%9.65 | 14%7.08 | 18%5.66 |
| Southend | 2%51.55 | 5%19.49 | 31%3.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Hartlepool wins0Southend wins- W Hartlepool vs Southend 4-3
- D Southend vs Hartlepool 1-1
- D Southend vs Hartlepool 0-0
- D Hartlepool vs Southend 0-0
- D Hartlepool vs Southend 0-0
- W Southend vs Hartlepool 2-3
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hartlepool's side.