Hearts
34%
Fair odds 2.93
Celtic
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.44
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 1–29%
- 2–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hearts | Draw | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Celtic
Celtic are rated 52 points above Hearts (1607 to 1555), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hearts
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hearts's chance of winning and takes the same from Celtic's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Celtic
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.6. Hearts score 1.2 a match against an average side (4th in Scottish Premiership); Celtic concede 1.2 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Hearts LDWLL, lost 28 rating points; Celtic WLDWL, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Celtic
Hearts won 5, drew 1 and lost 14 of the last 20 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HeartsCelticHearts
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
19 conceded
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
11/05
Celtic
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
18 conceded
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hearts | Draw | Celtic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts | 20%4.90 | 5%18.25 | 3%33.90 |
| Level | 12%8.42 | 13%7.42 | 15%6.87 |
| Celtic | 2%44.44 | 5%20.00 | 24%4.16 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Hearts wins14Celtic wins- L Celtic vs Hearts 7-1
- L Celtic vs Hearts 3-1
- D Hearts vs Celtic 2-2
- W Celtic vs Hearts 1-2
- W Hearts vs Celtic 3-1
- L Celtic vs Hearts 3-0
- L Hearts vs Celtic 1-4
- L Celtic vs Hearts 2-0
- L Celtic vs Hearts 3-0
- W Hearts vs Celtic 2-0
20 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hearts's side.