Hertha
Model pick
66%
Fair odds 1.51
Karlsruhe
15%
Fair odds 6.61
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hertha | Draw | Karlsruhe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Elo model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hertha
Hertha are rated 118 points above Karlsruhe (1441 to 1323), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hertha
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Hertha's chance of winning and takes the same from Karlsruhe's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hertha
Expected goals 2.4 to 1.1. Hertha score 1.2 a match against an average side (3rd in 2. Bundesliga); Karlsruhe concede 2.0 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hertha
Hertha WWDWW, gained 29 rating points; Karlsruhe WLWLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Hertha won 2, drew 3 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HerthaKarlsruheHertha
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
8 conceded
08/07
08/15
08/28
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/31
Karlsruhe
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
21 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/29
09/04
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hertha | Draw | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha | 40%2.47 | 3%28.99 | 1%98.04 |
| Level | 21%4.68 | 10%10.22 | 5%18.66 |
| Karlsruhe | 5%20.88 | 5%20.96 | 9%11.03 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Hertha wins1Karlsruhe wins- D Karlsruhe vs Hertha 2-2
- D Hertha vs Karlsruhe 0-0
- W Hertha vs Karlsruhe 3-1
- W Karlsruhe vs Hertha 1-3
- L Karlsruhe vs Hertha 3-2
- D Hertha vs Karlsruhe 2-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hertha's side.