Hibernian
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.28
Dundee
30%
Fair odds 3.32
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hibernian | Draw | Dundee | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hibernian
Hibernian are rated 22 points above Dundee (1480 to 1458), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hibernian
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hibernian's chance of winning and takes the same from Dundee's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hibernian
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Hibernian score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in Scottish Premiership); Dundee concede 1.5 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dundee
Hibernian DLLLD, lost 26 rating points; Dundee WLDWW, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Hibernian
Hibernian won 7, drew 5 and lost 2 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HibernianDundeeHibernian
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
15 conceded
08/09
08/30
09/03
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
Dundee
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
12 conceded
08/08
08/22
08/30
09/02
09/06
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hibernian | Draw | Dundee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian | 29%3.45 | 6%17.01 | 2%42.74 |
| Level | 13%7.43 | 15%6.75 | 12%8.44 |
| Dundee | 2%51.28 | 4%23.09 | 16%6.10 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Hibernian wins2Dundee wins- W Dundee vs Hibernian 1-2
- D Dundee vs Hibernian 3-3
- W Hibernian vs Dundee 2-0
- W Dundee vs Hibernian 1-2
- W Hibernian vs Dundee 4-0
- L Dundee vs Hibernian 4-1
- D Hibernian vs Dundee 2-2
- W Hibernian vs Dundee 2-1
- W Dundee vs Hibernian 1-2
- D Hibernian vs Dundee 0-0
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hibernian's side.