Hoffenheim
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.89
Augsburg
25%
Fair odds 4.03
The prediction
- 1–110%
- 2–19%
- 2–07%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hoffenheim | Draw | Augsburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim are rated 29 points above Augsburg (1511 to 1482), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hoffenheim
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hoffenheim's chance of winning and takes the same from Augsburg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hoffenheim
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.4. Hoffenheim score 1.5 a match against an average side (6th in Bundesliga); Augsburg concede 1.4 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim DLWWW, gained 33 rating points; Augsburg LDLDL, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim won 5, drew 4 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HoffenheimAugsburgHoffenheim
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Augsburg
9/10 over 2.5
21 scored
20 conceded
05/09
05/16
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hoffenheim | Draw | Augsburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 34%2.96 | 5%19.31 | 2%46.51 |
| Level | 16%6.17 | 12%8.62 | 9%10.82 |
| Augsburg | 3%30.58 | 5%21.10 | 14%7.24 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Hoffenheim wins1Augsburg wins- D Augsburg vs Hoffenheim 2-2
- W Hoffenheim vs Augsburg 3-0
- D Hoffenheim vs Augsburg 1-1
- D Augsburg vs Hoffenheim 0-0
- W Hoffenheim vs Augsburg 3-1
- D Augsburg vs Hoffenheim 1-1
- L Augsburg vs Hoffenheim 1-0
- W Hoffenheim vs Augsburg 1-0
- W Hoffenheim vs Augsburg 3-1
- W Augsburg vs Hoffenheim 0-4
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hoffenheim's side.