Hoffenheim
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.53Bookmakers 68%
Sturm Graz
14%
Fair odds 6.91Bookmakers 14%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hoffenheim | Draw | Sturm Graz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 65% | 20% | 14% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Best price on offer | 1.42 | 5.30 | 7.30 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim are rated 80 points above Sturm Graz (1511 to 1431), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hoffenheim
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Hoffenheim's chance of winning and takes the same from Sturm Graz's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hoffenheim
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.9. Hoffenheim score 1.5 a match against an average side (6th in Bundesliga); Sturm Graz concede 1.5 (4th best defence in Austrian Bundesliga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim DLWWW, gained 33 rating points; Sturm Graz LDDWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Hoffenheim 68%, Sturm Graz 14%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HoffenheimSturm GrazHoffenheim
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Sturm Graz
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hoffenheim | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 35%2.83 | 2%52.08 | 0%— |
| Level | 24%4.15 | 11%9.35 | 3%30.58 |
| Sturm Graz | 6%15.67 | 7%14.86 | 11%8.90 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.