Holstein Kiel
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.44
Kaiserslautern
33%
Fair odds 3.07
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | Kaiserslautern | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kaiserslautern
Kaiserslautern are rated 39 points above Holstein Kiel (1379 to 1340), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Holstein Kiel
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Holstein Kiel's chance of winning and takes the same from Kaiserslautern's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Holstein Kiel
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.3. Holstein Kiel score 0.9 a match against an average side (17th in 2. Bundesliga); Kaiserslautern concede 1.7 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Holstein Kiel LWDLD, lost 5 rating points; Kaiserslautern LWWDW, gained 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Holstein Kiel won 2, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Holstein KielKaiserslauternHolstein Kiel
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
12 conceded
08/08
08/14
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/16
10/25
11/01
Kaiserslautern
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
7 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Holstein Kiel | Draw | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 26%3.80 | 6%17.70 | 2%44.05 |
| Level | 13%7.61 | 15%6.60 | 12%8.12 |
| Kaiserslautern | 2%50.51 | 5%21.69 | 19%5.40 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Holstein Kiel wins3Kaiserslautern wins- W Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern 3-0
- L Kaiserslautern vs Holstein Kiel 4-1
- L Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern 1-3
- W Kaiserslautern vs Holstein Kiel 0-3
- L Kaiserslautern vs Holstein Kiel 2-1
- D Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern 2-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Holstein Kiel's side.