Solihull
27%
Fair odds 3.64
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hornchurch | Draw | Solihull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hornchurch
Hornchurch are rated 37 points above Solihull (1029 to 992), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hornchurch
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hornchurch's chance of winning and takes the same from Solihull's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hornchurch
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.3. Hornchurch score 0.5 a match against an average side (21st in National League); Solihull concede 4.0 (24th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Hornchurch LLLWL, lost 22 rating points; Solihull WWLLL, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
HornchurchSolihull
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/30
Solihull
8/10 over 2.5
13 scored
23 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/18
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/24
10/27
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hornchurch | Draw | Solihull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hornchurch | 26%3.92 | 4%27.55 | 1%80.00 |
| Level | 19%5.32 | 13%7.84 | 8%11.98 |
| Solihull | 5%21.32 | 7%14.90 | 18%5.46 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.