Inter
Model pick
76%
Fair odds 1.32
Genoa
9%
Fair odds 11.75
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Inter | Draw | Genoa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 76% | 16% | 9% |
| Elo model | 75% | 19% | 7% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Inter
Inter are rated 223 points above Genoa (1697 to 1474), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Inter
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Inter's chance of winning and takes the same from Genoa's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Inter
Expected goals 2.5 to 0.8. Inter score 1.9 a match against an average side (2nd in Serie A); Genoa concede 1.3 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Genoa
Inter WLWWW, gained 10 rating points; Genoa WWWLW, gained 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Inter
Inter won 5, drew 3 and lost 0 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
InterGenoaInter
8/10 over 2.5
25 scored
14 conceded
09/14
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/28
10/31
11/03
Genoa
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/04
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Inter | Draw | Genoa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 47%2.12 | 2%44.25 | 0%— |
| Level | 24%4.09 | 9%11.24 | 3%32.79 |
| Genoa | 5%21.98 | 4%25.84 | 5%18.80 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Inter wins0Genoa wins- W Inter vs Genoa 2-0
- W Genoa vs Inter 1-2
- W Inter vs Genoa 1-0
- D Genoa vs Inter 2-2
- W Inter vs Genoa 2-1
- D Genoa vs Inter 1-1
- D Genoa vs Inter 0-0
- W Inter vs Genoa 4-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Inter's side.