Inter
Model pick
66%
Fair odds 1.51Bookmakers 63%
Stuttgart
16%
Fair odds 6.37Bookmakers 18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Inter | Draw | Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| Elo model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Best price on offer | 1.56 | 5.25 | 5.55 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Inter
Inter are rated 116 points above Stuttgart (1697 to 1581), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Inter
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Inter's chance of winning and takes the same from Stuttgart's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Inter
Expected goals 2.6 to 1.2. Inter score 1.9 a match against an average side (2nd in Serie A); Stuttgart concede 1.2 (5th best defence in Bundesliga).
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Last 5 matches Favours Inter
Inter WLWWW, gained 10 rating points; Stuttgart LWLDL, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Stuttgart
Bookmakers rate Stuttgart higher than the model does: Inter 63% against the model's 66%, Stuttgart 18% against 16%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
InterStuttgartInter
8/10 over 2.5
25 scored
14 conceded
09/14
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/28
10/31
11/03
Stuttgart
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
13 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/23
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 76%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Inter | Draw | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 39%2.59 | 3%30.58 | 1%93.46 |
| Level | 22%4.49 | 9%11.15 | 5%18.69 |
| Stuttgart | 6%17.21 | 5%19.72 | 10%10.48 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.