Internacional
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.78
Bragantino
36%
Fair odds 2.81
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Internacional | Draw | Bragantino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 29% | 36% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bragantino
Bragantino are rated 27 points above Internacional (1370 to 1343), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Internacional
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Internacional's chance of winning and takes the same from Bragantino's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.2. Internacional score 0.8 a match against an average side (13th in Brasileirão); Bragantino concede 1.5 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Internacional WLWLD, gained 9 rating points; Bragantino WWLDW, gained 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Internacional
Internacional won 5, drew 4 and lost 2 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
InternacionalBragantinoInternacional
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
14 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/07
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
11/04
Bragantino
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/03
10/07
10/13
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Internacional | Draw | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 27%3.72 | 6%15.58 | 2%45.25 |
| Level | 9%11.53 | 18%5.68 | 13%7.78 |
| Bragantino | 1%— | 4%28.49 | 21%4.76 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Internacional wins2Bragantino wins- L Bragantino vs Internacional 3-1
- W Internacional vs Bragantino 3-1
- W Bragantino vs Internacional 1-3
- W Internacional vs Bragantino 4-1
- D Bragantino vs Internacional 2-2
- W Internacional vs Bragantino 1-0
- D Bragantino vs Internacional 0-0
- D Internacional vs Bragantino 0-0
- W Bragantino vs Internacional 0-2
- L Bragantino vs Internacional 1-0
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Internacional's side.