Ipswich
29%
Fair odds 3.50
Aston Villa
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.14
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ipswich | Draw | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 25% | 47% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 44% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Aston Villa
Aston Villa are rated 117 points above Ipswich (1651 to 1534), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ipswich
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Ipswich's chance of winning and takes the same from Aston Villa's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Aston Villa
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.7. Ipswich score 1.4 a match against an average side (16th in Premier League); Aston Villa concede 0.9 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Ipswich DDLWL, barely moved; Aston Villa LDWWW, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
IpswichAston VillaIpswich
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
18 conceded
05/02
08/22
08/30
09/04
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/23
10/31
Aston Villa
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
14 conceded
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ipswich | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 20%5.03 | 8%13.33 | 5%18.80 |
| Level | 8%12.32 | 13%7.56 | 20%5.00 |
| Aston Villa | 1%— | 3%32.68 | 22%4.57 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Ipswich wins0Aston Villa wins- D Aston Villa vs Ipswich 1-1
- D Ipswich vs Aston Villa 2-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Ipswich's side.