Iraklis
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.90
Panetolikos
22%
Fair odds 4.57
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Iraklis | Draw | Panetolikos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 26% | 22% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Iraklis
Iraklis are rated 58 points above Panetolikos (1354 to 1295), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Iraklis
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Iraklis's chance of winning and takes the same from Panetolikos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Iraklis
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.0. Iraklis score 0.8 a match against an average side (11th in Greek Super League); Panetolikos concede 2.0 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Iraklis
Iraklis DLLWD, barely moved; Panetolikos LLLLL, lost 35 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
IraklisPanetolikosIraklis
3/9 over 2.5
10 scored
12 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/02
Panetolikos
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
05/21
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Iraklis | Draw | Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iraklis | 33%3.04 | 5%21.19 | 1%71.94 |
| Level | 18%5.63 | 15%6.49 | 9%11.19 |
| Panetolikos | 2%40.65 | 4%22.47 | 12%8.31 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.