Juventus
Model pick
72%
Fair odds 1.38Bookmakers 77%
Omonia Nicosia
10%
Fair odds 9.92Bookmakers 9%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Juventus | Draw | Omonia Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Elo model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Best price on offer | 1.24 | 6.99 | 12.90 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Juventus
Juventus are rated 175 points above Omonia Nicosia (1606 to 1432), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Juventus
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Juventus's chance of winning and takes the same from Omonia Nicosia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Juventus
Expected goals 2.4 to 0.8. Juventus score 1.6 a match against an average side (4th in Serie A); Omonia Nicosia concede 1.4.
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Last 5 matches Favours Omonia Nicosia
Juventus WWLWD, gained 7 rating points; Omonia Nicosia LLWWL, gained 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Juventus
Bookmakers rate Juventus higher than the model does: Juventus 77% against the model's 72%, Omonia Nicosia 9% against 10%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
JuventusOmonia NicosiaJuventus
5/10 over 2.5
18 scored
10 conceded
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
11/01
11/05
Omonia Nicosia
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
13 conceded
11/06
12/11
09/16
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Juventus | Draw | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 39%2.56 | 2%53.48 | 0%— |
| Level | 28%3.62 | 10%10.14 | 3%32.47 |
| Omonia Nicosia | 6%16.64 | 5%19.53 | 7%14.29 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.