Kalmar
28%
Fair odds 3.55
AIK
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.19
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kalmar | Draw | AIK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours AIK
AIK are rated 97 points above Kalmar (1368 to 1271), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kalmar
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kalmar's chance of winning and takes the same from AIK's.
-
Attack against defence Favours AIK
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Kalmar score 0.6 a match against an average side (17th in Allsvenskan); AIK concede 1.9 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kalmar DLLWL, lost 11 rating points; AIK LDWDL, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours AIK
Kalmar won 2, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
KalmarAIKKalmar
3/10 over 2.5
2 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/19
10/24
10/29
11/02
AIK
8/10 over 2.5
18 scored
22 conceded
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kalmar | Draw | AIK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalmar | 22%4.48 | 8%11.96 | 5%20.66 |
| Level | 6%17.30 | 15%6.88 | 19%5.32 |
| AIK | 0%— | 2%41.67 | 22%4.45 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Kalmar wins4AIK wins- L AIK vs Kalmar 1-0
- L Kalmar vs AIK 0-1
- W AIK vs Kalmar 1-2
- D Kalmar vs AIK 1-1
- D AIK vs Kalmar 1-1
- W Kalmar vs AIK 1-0
- L AIK vs Kalmar 1-0
- D Kalmar vs AIK 1-1
- L AIK vs Kalmar 2-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kalmar's side.