Kashima Antlers
Model pick
70%
Fair odds 1.42
Okayama
11%
Fair odds 8.91
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kashima Antlers | Draw | Okayama | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 70% | 18% | 11% |
| Elo model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kashima Antlers
Kashima Antlers are rated 142 points above Okayama (1449 to 1307), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kashima Antlers
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Kashima Antlers's chance of winning and takes the same from Okayama's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kashima Antlers
Expected goals 2.3 to 0.8. Kashima Antlers score 1.1 a match against an average side (6th in J1 League); Okayama concede 2.1 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Kashima Antlers
Kashima Antlers WLDWW, gained 8 rating points; Okayama LLWLL, lost 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Kashima AntlersOkayamaKashima Antlers
6/10 over 2.5
20 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/11
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Okayama
9/10 over 2.5
13 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kashima Antlers | Draw | Okayama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima Antlers | 34%2.91 | 1%98.04 | 0%— |
| Level | 28%3.57 | 9%10.75 | 2%56.50 |
| Okayama | 8%11.81 | 7%13.77 | 10%10.37 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Kashima Antlers wins1Okayama wins- L Kashima Antlers vs Okayama 1-2
- W Okayama vs Kashima Antlers 1-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kashima Antlers's side.