Kashiwa Reysol
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.47
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
33%
Fair odds 3.02
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kashiwa Reysol | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 26% | 33% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are rated 17 points above Kashiwa Reysol (1470 to 1453), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kashiwa Reysol
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kashiwa Reysol's chance of winning and takes the same from Sanfrecce Hiroshima's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kashiwa Reysol
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.3. Kashiwa Reysol score 1.2 a match against an average side (2nd in J1 League); Sanfrecce Hiroshima concede 1.2 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kashiwa Reysol WWDLW, gained 10 rating points; Sanfrecce Hiroshima WWLWW, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kashiwa Reysol won 1, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Kashiwa ReysolSanfrecce HiroshimaKashiwa Reysol
6/10 over 2.5
20 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/09
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
8 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kashiwa Reysol | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol | 27%3.66 | 6%16.98 | 2%43.67 |
| Level | 12%8.42 | 15%6.59 | 12%8.29 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2%58.48 | 4%22.57 | 19%5.20 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Kashiwa Reysol wins5Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins- D Kashiwa Reysol vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0
- D Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashiwa Reysol 1-1
- L Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashiwa Reysol 2-0
- L Kashiwa Reysol vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1
- D Kashiwa Reysol vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0
- L Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashiwa Reysol 1-0
- L Kashiwa Reysol vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-3
- W Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashiwa Reysol 1-2
- L Kashiwa Reysol vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-3
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kashiwa Reysol's side.