Kawasaki Frontale
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.77
Gamba Osaka
23%
Fair odds 4.42
The prediction
- 2–19%
- 1–19%
- 3–17%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kawasaki Frontale | Draw | Gamba Osaka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 57% | 21% | 23% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale are rated 54 points above Gamba Osaka (1397 to 1343), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kawasaki Frontale
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kawasaki Frontale's chance of winning and takes the same from Gamba Osaka's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kawasaki Frontale
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.4. Kawasaki Frontale score 1.1 a match against an average side (5th in J1 League); Gamba Osaka concede 1.9 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kawasaki Frontale LWWWL, barely moved; Gamba Osaka DDWDL, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Gamba Osaka
Kawasaki Frontale won 2, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Kawasaki FrontaleGamba OsakaKawasaki Frontale
9/10 over 2.5
23 scored
18 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Gamba Osaka
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
14 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/17
10/21
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kawasaki Frontale | Draw | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale | 30%3.30 | 4%26.88 | 2%66.67 |
| Level | 21%4.76 | 10%9.60 | 8%13.02 |
| Gamba Osaka | 6%17.48 | 6%16.98 | 14%7.27 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Kawasaki Frontale wins4Gamba Osaka wins- L Gamba Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale 2-1
- D Kawasaki Frontale vs Gamba Osaka 2-2
- D Kawasaki Frontale vs Gamba Osaka 1-1
- L Gamba Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale 3-1
- L Kawasaki Frontale vs Gamba Osaka 3-4
- L Gamba Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale 2-0
- W Kawasaki Frontale vs Gamba Osaka 4-0
- D Gamba Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale 2-2
- W Kawasaki Frontale vs Gamba Osaka 4-1
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kawasaki Frontale's side.