Doncaster
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.88
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kidderminster | Draw | Doncaster | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 20% | 27% | 53% |
| Elo model | 14% | 24% | 62% |
Team news
- Zak Brown Out
- Callum Dolan Out
- Connor Mahoney Out
Only one preview (LiveScore, dated today) names this trio as expected to miss out; Sam Austin has rejoined on loan and Layton Campbell has signed, both news from 5 November and not absences.
- Will Keane Out
- James Collins Doubtful
Doncaster Free Press (5 Nov) says Keane is likely out for about four weeks; Jordan Thomas was injured against Burton earlier and has since returned to training per the club's press coverage, so no absence listed for him. Position of James Collins not confirmed in sources, so DEF is a placeholder.
Allowing for this news: Kidderminster 17%, draw 26%, Doncaster 57% (xG 0.75 – 1.58). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: livescore.com, doncasterfreepress.co.uk, doncasterfreepress.co.uk, harriers.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Doncaster
Doncaster are rated 246 points above Kidderminster (1286 to 1040), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kidderminster
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Kidderminster's chance of winning and takes the same from Doncaster's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Doncaster
Expected goals 0.9 to 1.6. Kidderminster score 0.4 a match against an average side (24th in National League); Doncaster concede 2.0 (19th best defence in League One).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kidderminster LDLDD, lost 10 rating points; Doncaster LLWLL, lost 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
KidderminsterDoncaster
09/11
09/16
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/27
10/31
Doncaster
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
18 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 0-3
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kidderminster | Draw | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster | 10%10.29 | 3%33.00 | 1%81.97 |
| Level | 9%10.70 | 17%6.04 | 14%7.25 |
| Doncaster | 2%60.61 | 6%16.84 | 39%2.58 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.