Kifisia
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95
Kalamata
25%
Fair odds 4.06
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kifisia | Draw | Kalamata | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kalamata
Kalamata are rated 40 points above Kifisia (1353 to 1314), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kifisia
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kifisia's chance of winning and takes the same from Kalamata's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kifisia
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.2. Kifisia score 0.9 a match against an average side (6th in Greek Super League); Kalamata concede 2.0 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kifisia LWLWW, gained 19 rating points; Kalamata DLWWL, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
KifisiaKalamataKifisia
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
16 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/10
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/31
Kalamata
5/9 over 2.5
14 scored
18 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kifisia | Draw | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kifisia | 29%3.41 | 4%23.20 | 2%65.79 |
| Level | 19%5.33 | 13%7.49 | 9%11.09 |
| Kalamata | 4%27.10 | 5%18.35 | 15%6.87 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.