Kyoto
Model pick
59%
Fair odds 1.69
Cerezo Osaka
19%
Fair odds 5.30
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kyoto | Draw | Cerezo Osaka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kyoto
Kyoto are rated 43 points above Cerezo Osaka (1372 to 1329), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kyoto
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kyoto's chance of winning and takes the same from Cerezo Osaka's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kyoto
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.1. Kyoto score 0.9 a match against an average side (9th in J1 League); Cerezo Osaka concede 2.3 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kyoto WDDLL, lost 7 rating points; Cerezo Osaka LDDLD, lost 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Kyoto won 3, drew 3 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
KyotoCerezo OsakaKyoto
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Cerezo Osaka
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kyoto | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto | 32%3.12 | 3%35.84 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.53 | 12%8.50 | 5%18.94 |
| Cerezo Osaka | 6%18.18 | 7%15.24 | 13%7.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Kyoto wins2Cerezo Osaka wins- W Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto 1-2
- L Kyoto vs Cerezo Osaka 2-3
- W Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto 3-5
- D Kyoto vs Cerezo Osaka 1-1
- W Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto 0-1
- L Kyoto vs Cerezo Osaka 0-1
- D Kyoto vs Cerezo Osaka 0-0
- D Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto 1-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kyoto's side.