La Coruna
10%
Fair odds 9.74
Barcelona
Model pick
75%
Fair odds 1.34
The prediction
- 1–29%
- 0–29%
- 1–38%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| La Coruna | Draw | Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 10% | 15% | 75% |
| Elo model | 8% | 20% | 71% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Barcelona
Barcelona are rated 322 points above La Coruna (1753 to 1432), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours La Coruna
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 5 points to La Coruna's chance of winning and takes the same from Barcelona's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Barcelona
Expected goals 1.0 to 2.8. La Coruna score 1.2 a match against an average side (13th in La Liga); Barcelona concede 0.9 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
La Coruna WLDLD, barely moved; Barcelona WWLLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
La CorunaBarcelonaLa Coruna
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
13 conceded
08/24
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/24
11/02
Barcelona
10/10 over 2.5
38 scored
15 conceded
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-4
- 0-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | La Coruna | Draw | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Coruna | 6%17.01 | 4%26.46 | 5%20.41 |
| Level | 4%26.11 | 8%13.00 | 22%4.49 |
| Barcelona | 1%— | 3%34.48 | 48%2.09 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.