Las Palmas
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.67
Andorra
36%
Fair odds 2.78
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Las Palmas | Draw | Andorra | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Las Palmas
Las Palmas are rated 60 points above Andorra (1397 to 1338), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Las Palmas
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Las Palmas's chance of winning and takes the same from Andorra's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Las Palmas score 0.9 a match against an average side (16th in La Liga 2); Andorra concede 1.5 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Andorra
Las Palmas WWLLD, lost 13 rating points; Andorra LLWDW, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Las Palmas won 1, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Las PalmasAndorraLas Palmas
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/20
09/27
10/04
10/11
10/17
11/02
Andorra
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/19
09/26
10/04
10/11
10/18
10/26
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Las Palmas | Draw | Andorra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | 24%4.08 | 6%15.53 | 3%31.75 |
| Level | 12%8.39 | 15%6.61 | 15%6.61 |
| Andorra | 2%63.29 | 4%25.38 | 18%5.49 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Las Palmas wins1Andorra wins- L Andorra vs Las Palmas 5-1
- D Las Palmas vs Andorra 1-1
- D Andorra vs Las Palmas 0-0
- W Las Palmas vs Andorra 2-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Las Palmas's side.