Le Havre
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.68
Strasbourg
37%
Fair odds 2.72
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Le Havre | Draw | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Strasbourg
Strasbourg are rated 113 points above Le Havre (1530 to 1417), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Le Havre
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Le Havre's chance of winning and takes the same from Strasbourg's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Le Havre score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in Ligue 1); Strasbourg concede 1.3 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Le Havre LLLLL, lost 29 rating points; Strasbourg WLLLL, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Le Havre won 3, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Le HavreStrasbourgLe Havre
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/30
Strasbourg
9/10 over 2.5
22 scored
23 conceded
05/17
08/21
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Le Havre | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 21%4.68 | 5%19.69 | 2%42.19 |
| Level | 14%7.17 | 15%6.82 | 14%7.37 |
| Strasbourg | 2%40.16 | 5%19.12 | 21%4.69 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Le Havre wins3Strasbourg wins- W Le Havre vs Strasbourg 2-1
- L Strasbourg vs Le Havre 1-0
- W Strasbourg vs Le Havre 2-3
- L Le Havre vs Strasbourg 0-3
- W Le Havre vs Strasbourg 3-1
- L Strasbourg vs Le Havre 2-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Le Havre's side.