Le Mans
30%
Fair odds 3.39
Lille
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.31
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Le Mans | Draw | Lille | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Elo model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lille
Lille are rated 152 points above Le Mans (1560 to 1408), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Le Mans
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Le Mans's chance of winning and takes the same from Lille's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Lille
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.4. Le Mans score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in Ligue 1); Lille concede 1.1 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Le Mans LDLLW, lost 14 rating points; Lille DWDLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Le MansLilleLe Mans
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
18 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/25
10/31
Lille
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
14 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Le Mans | Draw | Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 16%6.36 | 4%24.10 | 2%57.80 |
| Level | 12%8.22 | 16%6.17 | 14%7.30 |
| Lille | 2%46.30 | 6%17.18 | 28%3.53 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.