Le Mans
24%
Fair odds 4.12Bookmakers 22%
Monaco
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.94Bookmakers 55%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Le Mans | Draw | Monaco | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Elo model | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Best price on offer | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.75 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Monaco
Monaco are rated 169 points above Le Mans (1578 to 1408), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Le Mans
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Le Mans's chance of winning and takes the same from Monaco's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Monaco
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.8. Le Mans score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in Ligue 1); Monaco concede 1.1 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Le Mans LDLLW, lost 14 rating points; Monaco WLDWL, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Le Mans
Monaco will have had 3 days' rest, Le Mans 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Monaco
Bookmakers rate Monaco higher than the model does: Le Mans 22% against the model's 24%, Monaco 55% against 52%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Le MansMonacoLe Mans
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
18 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/25
10/31
Monaco
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
11 conceded
09/04
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-3
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Le Mans | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 15%6.64 | 6%17.48 | 4%26.39 |
| Level | 8%11.99 | 13%7.42 | 19%5.33 |
| Monaco | 1%76.92 | 4%24.63 | 30%3.39 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.