Leeds
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.85
Coventry
22%
Fair odds 4.64
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Leeds | Draw | Coventry | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Leeds
Leeds are rated 29 points above Coventry (1580 to 1551), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Leeds
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Leeds's chance of winning and takes the same from Coventry's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Leeds
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Leeds score 1.5 a match against an average side (11th in Premier League); Coventry concede 1.2 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Coventry
Leeds LDDLD, lost 15 rating points; Coventry WLLWW, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Leeds won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LeedsCoventryLeeds
3/10 over 2.5
9 scored
11 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Coventry
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
05/02
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/12
10/19
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Leeds | Draw | Coventry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 31%3.24 | 4%25.91 | 1%89.29 |
| Level | 20%4.97 | 14%7.17 | 8%12.89 |
| Coventry | 4%26.95 | 5%18.28 | 13%7.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Leeds wins1Coventry wins- W Coventry vs Leeds 0-2
- W Leeds vs Coventry 3-0
- L Coventry vs Leeds 2-1
- D Leeds vs Coventry 1-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Leeds's side.