Leeds
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.46Bookmakers 35%
Tottenham
32%
Fair odds 3.10Bookmakers 37%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Leeds | Draw | Tottenham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Best price on offer | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.66 |
Team news
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin Doubtful
- Noah Okafor Doubtful
- Anton Stach Doubtful
- Joe Rodon Doubtful
Farke's pre-match press conference said Rodon is back in full team training, while Sports Mole and Livescore still list him as doubtful.
- Mykhaylo Mudryk Out
- Wilson Odobert Out
- Xavi Simons Out
- Savio Out
- Lucas Bergvall Doubtful
Tosin Adarabioyo is available per De Zerbi's press conference; Rodrigo Bentancur completes his suspension and James Maddison and Pedro Porro are back in contention.
Allowing for this news: Leeds 39%, draw 28%, Tottenham 33% (xG 1.36 – 1.23). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, livescore.com, spurs-web.com, uk.sports.yahoo.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Leeds
Leeds are rated 25 points above Tottenham (1580 to 1555), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Leeds
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Leeds's chance of winning and takes the same from Tottenham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Leeds
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Leeds score 1.5 a match against an average side (11th in Premier League); Tottenham concede 1.0 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Tottenham
Leeds LDDLD, lost 15 rating points; Tottenham WWWDL, gained 33 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Tottenham
Bookmakers rate Tottenham higher than the model does: Leeds 35% against the model's 41%, Tottenham 37% against 32%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Tottenham
Leeds won 0, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LeedsTottenhamLeeds
3/10 over 2.5
9 scored
11 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Tottenham
3/10 over 2.5
11 scored
10 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/19
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 49%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Leeds | Draw | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 27%3.77 | 6%16.42 | 3%39.06 |
| Level | 13%7.70 | 16%6.32 | 13%7.42 |
| Tottenham | 2%59.52 | 4%24.51 | 17%5.96 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Leeds wins5Tottenham wins- D Tottenham vs Leeds 1-1
- L Leeds vs Tottenham 1-2
- L Leeds vs Tottenham 1-4
- L Tottenham vs Leeds 4-3
- L Leeds vs Tottenham 0-4
- L Tottenham vs Leeds 2-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Leeds's side.