Leganes
32%
Fair odds 3.12
Sabadell
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.48
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Leganes | Draw | Sabadell | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sabadell
Sabadell are rated 50 points above Leganes (1363 to 1313), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Leganes
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Leganes's chance of winning and takes the same from Sabadell's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sabadell
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.4. Leganes score 0.8 a match against an average side (22nd in La Liga 2); Sabadell concede 1.4 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sabadell
Leganes LDLLL, lost 34 rating points; Sabadell LDLWD, lost 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
LeganesSabadellLeganes
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/13
09/20
09/28
10/03
10/11
10/16
10/24
11/02
Sabadell
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/04
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Leganes | Draw | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes | 21%4.72 | 6%15.50 | 3%31.25 |
| Level | 10%9.79 | 16%6.13 | 17%5.93 |
| Sabadell | 1%84.75 | 4%26.88 | 21%4.79 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.