Levante
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.21
Elche
29%
Fair odds 3.40
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Levante | Draw | Elche | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 25% | 29% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Levante and Elche are rated almost level (1458 and 1464).
-
Home advantage Favours Levante
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Levante's chance of winning and takes the same from Elche's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Levante
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Levante score 1.3 a match against an average side (8th in La Liga); Elche concede 1.3 (11th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Elche
Levante LLWDD, barely moved; Elche LWDDW, gained 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Levante
Levante won 4, drew 3 and lost 1 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LevanteElcheLevante
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
18 conceded
08/24
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/16
10/21
10/25
10/31
Elche
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
17 conceded
08/23
09/07
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Levante | Draw | Elche |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 26%3.78 | 5%20.96 | 2%54.64 |
| Level | 16%6.14 | 14%6.99 | 11%9.33 |
| Elche | 3%33.44 | 5%18.66 | 17%5.78 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Levante wins1Elche wins- W Levante vs Elche 3-2
- L Elche vs Levante 2-0
- W Elche vs Levante 1-3
- D Levante vs Elche 1-1
- W Levante vs Elche 3-2
- D Elche vs Levante 0-0
- W Levante vs Elche 3-0
- D Elche vs Levante 1-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Levante's side.