Levante
Model pick
72%
Fair odds 1.39
Racing Club
11%
Fair odds 9.27
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Levante | Draw | Racing Club | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Elo model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Levante
Levante are rated 100 points above Racing Club (1458 to 1358), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Levante
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Levante's chance of winning and takes the same from Racing Club's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Levante
Expected goals 2.5 to 0.9. Levante score 1.3 a match against an average side (8th in La Liga); Racing Club concede 1.7 (22nd best defence in Liga Profesional).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Levante LLWDD, barely moved; Racing Club WLDLW, lost 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
LevanteRacing ClubLevante
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
18 conceded
08/24
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/16
10/21
10/25
10/31
Racing Club
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/24
08/31
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/05
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Levante | Draw | Racing Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 28%3.59 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 32%3.11 | 8%13.05 | 1%70.42 |
| Racing Club | 12%8.06 | 8%12.27 | 10%10.43 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.