Lincoln
27%
Fair odds 3.67
Wolves
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.15
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lincoln | Draw | Wolves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Wolves
Wolves are rated 46 points above Lincoln (1485 to 1439), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lincoln
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Lincoln's chance of winning and takes the same from Wolves's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Wolves
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.6. Lincoln score 0.9 a match against an average side (21st in Championship); Wolves concede 1.2 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Wolves
Lincoln LLWDL, lost 23 rating points; Wolves WWWDW, gained 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
LincolnWolvesLincoln
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
19 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Wolves
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
9 conceded
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/16
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lincoln | Draw | Wolves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 17%5.85 | 6%16.81 | 3%29.33 |
| Level | 9%10.65 | 15%6.57 | 18%5.46 |
| Wolves | 1%79.37 | 4%25.19 | 25%3.94 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.