Lommel SK
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.94
Waregem
25%
Fair odds 4.05
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lommel SK | Draw | Waregem | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 24% | 25% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lommel SK
Lommel SK are rated 61 points above Waregem (1521 to 1460), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lommel SK
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Lommel SK's chance of winning and takes the same from Waregem's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Lommel SK
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.2. Lommel SK score 1.3 a match against an average side (9th in Belgian Pro League); Waregem concede 1.5 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Lommel SK
Lommel SK WDWDL, gained 12 rating points; Waregem LLLLL, lost 49 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Lommel SKWaregemLommel SK
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
11 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/23
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/24
11/01
Waregem
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
16 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lommel SK | Draw | Waregem |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lommel SK | 31%3.18 | 5%20.92 | 2%57.14 |
| Level | 17%5.78 | 13%7.66 | 9%10.82 |
| Waregem | 3%30.96 | 5%19.92 | 14%7.06 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.