Luton
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.57
Oxford
34%
Fair odds 2.90
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Luton | Draw | Oxford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Oxford
Oxford are rated 30 points above Luton (1448 to 1418), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Luton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Luton's chance of winning and takes the same from Oxford's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.3. Luton score 1.1 a match against an average side (4th in League One); Oxford concede 1.3 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Luton
Luton DWWWW, gained 26 rating points; Oxford WDWDW, gained 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
LutonOxfordLuton
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
11 conceded
09/05
09/10
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/03
Oxford
4/10 over 2.5
17 scored
5 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Luton | Draw | Oxford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luton | 22%4.47 | 5%20.16 | 2%48.08 |
| Level | 15%6.86 | 15%6.50 | 13%7.80 |
| Oxford | 2%40.49 | 5%19.08 | 20%4.97 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Luton wins1Oxford wins- L Oxford vs Luton 3-2
- D Luton vs Oxford 2-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Luton's side.