Lyngby
23%
Fair odds 4.40
Viborg
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.89
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lyngby | Draw | Viborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Elo model | 28% | 28% | 45% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Viborg
Viborg are rated 125 points above Lyngby (1404 to 1280), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lyngby
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Lyngby's chance of winning and takes the same from Viborg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Viborg
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.8. Lyngby score 0.7 a match against an average side (13th in Danish Superliga); Viborg concede 1.6 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Viborg
Lyngby WLDLL, lost 19 rating points; Viborg WLLWW, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Lyngby won 3, drew 5 and lost 3 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LyngbyViborgLyngby
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
21 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/30
Viborg
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
11 conceded
08/14
08/23
08/28
09/04
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/19
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lyngby | Draw | Viborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyngby | 19%5.25 | 9%10.78 | 7%13.89 |
| Level | 4%25.97 | 12%8.03 | 23%4.38 |
| Viborg | 0%— | 2%60.98 | 23%4.26 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Lyngby wins3Viborg wins- W Viborg vs Lyngby 0-2
- D Lyngby vs Viborg 0-0
- D Viborg vs Lyngby 1-1
- D Lyngby vs Viborg 0-0
- L Viborg vs Lyngby 1-0
- W Lyngby vs Viborg 3-1
- L Viborg vs Lyngby 2-1
- W Lyngby vs Viborg 2-0
- D Viborg vs Lyngby 2-2
- D Lyngby vs Viborg 1-1
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Lyngby's side.