Lyon
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.33
Monaco
32%
Fair odds 3.15
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 2–19%
- 1–08%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lyon | Draw | Monaco | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Lyon and Monaco are rated almost level (1586 and 1578).
-
Home advantage Favours Lyon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Lyon's chance of winning and takes the same from Monaco's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Lyon
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.4. Lyon score 1.4 a match against an average side (5th in Ligue 1); Monaco concede 1.1 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Lyon DWLLW, lost 14 rating points; Monaco WLDWL, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Lyon won 5, drew 0 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LyonMonacoLyon
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
12 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
10/09
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/26
11/01
11/05
Monaco
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
11 conceded
09/04
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lyon | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 28%3.60 | 6%16.89 | 3%38.31 |
| Level | 13%7.43 | 14%7.12 | 12%8.06 |
| Monaco | 2%46.73 | 4%22.47 | 17%5.80 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Lyon wins5Monaco wins- L Lyon vs Monaco 1-2
- W Monaco vs Lyon 1-3
- L Monaco vs Lyon 2-0
- L Lyon vs Monaco 0-2
- W Lyon vs Monaco 3-2
- W Monaco vs Lyon 0-1
- W Lyon vs Monaco 3-1
- L Monaco vs Lyon 2-1
- L Monaco vs Lyon 2-0
- W Lyon vs Monaco 2-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Lyon's side.