Machida
Model pick
78%
Fair odds 1.28
Verdy
6%
Fair odds 15.46
The prediction
- 2–015%
- 3–012%
- 1–012%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Machida | Draw | Verdy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 78% | 15% | 6% |
| Elo model | 68% | 22% | 10% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Machida
Machida are rated 162 points above Verdy (1453 to 1291), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Machida
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Machida's chance of winning and takes the same from Verdy's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Machida
Expected goals 2.4 to 0.6. Machida score 1.2 a match against an average side (4th in J1 League); Verdy concede 2.0 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Machida
Machida DDWWW, gained 25 rating points; Verdy WWDLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Machida
Machida won 3, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MachidaVerdyMachida
5/10 over 2.5
18 scored
8 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/24
11/01
Verdy
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Machida | Draw | Verdy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machida | 35%2.83 | 0%— | 0%— |
| Level | 31%3.25 | 8%12.63 | 0%— |
| Verdy | 10%9.97 | 7%13.44 | 8%12.67 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Machida wins1Verdy wins- W Verdy vs Machida 0-1
- L Machida vs Verdy 0-1
- W Verdy vs Machida 0-1
- W Machida vs Verdy 5-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Machida's side.