Magdeburg
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.83
Cottbus
23%
Fair odds 4.27
The prediction
- 2–19%
- 1–19%
- 2–07%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Magdeburg | Draw | Cottbus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Magdeburg
Magdeburg are rated 29 points above Cottbus (1374 to 1346), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Magdeburg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Magdeburg's chance of winning and takes the same from Cottbus's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Magdeburg
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.3. Magdeburg score 1.2 a match against an average side (5th in 2. Bundesliga); Cottbus concede 1.8 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Magdeburg
Magdeburg DWLWD, gained 16 rating points; Cottbus LDDLD, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MagdeburgCottbusMagdeburg
6/10 over 2.5
21 scored
13 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/31
Cottbus
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
20 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/16
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Magdeburg | Draw | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg | 33%3.06 | 4%23.26 | 2%61.73 |
| Level | 18%5.49 | 11%8.92 | 8%12.58 |
| Cottbus | 4%23.31 | 5%18.21 | 14%7.03 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.