Mainz
14%
Fair odds 7.38Bookmakers 14%
Bayern Munich
Model pick
70%
Fair odds 1.43Bookmakers 71%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Mainz | Draw | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 14% | 17% | 70% |
| Elo model | 12% | 23% | 66% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 14% | 15% | 71% |
| Best price on offer | 8.00 | 6.50 | 1.34 |
Team news
- Stefan Posch Out
- Phillipp Mwene Out
- Dominik Kohr Out
- Otto Ruoppi Out
- Silas Katompa Mvumpa Out
Mainz have lost four of their last five and are expected to line up in a 3-5-2; Fischer's side has only one home league point from four games. Positional and reason details for Ruoppi and Katompa rest on a single preview source.
- Jamal Musiala Out
- Luis Díaz Out
- Serge Gnabry Out
- Ismael Saibari Out
- Aleksandar Pavlović Doubtful
Rotation expected
Assistant Aaron Danks is in charge while Vincent Kompany recovers; Manuel Neuer has returned to training and is expected to play; Alphonso Davies may be rested for workload reasons (not listed as an absence). Kane is in the lineup, not injured, per recent previews.
Allowing for this news: Mainz 16%, draw 18%, Bayern Munich 66% (xG 1.17 – 2.51). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sports.yahoo.com, bulinews.com, sports.yahoo.com, sportsmole.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich are rated 275 points above Mainz (1772 to 1497), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Mainz
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Mainz's chance of winning and takes the same from Bayern Munich's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bayern Munich
Expected goals 1.2 to 2.7. Mainz score 1.3 a match against an average side (11th in Bundesliga); Bayern Munich concede 0.9 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bayern Munich
Mainz LLWLW, lost 18 rating points; Bayern Munich WDWDW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Mainz
Bayern Munich will have had 4 days' rest, Mainz 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Mainz 14%, Bayern Munich 71%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Bayern Munich
Mainz won 3, drew 1 and lost 6 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MainzBayern MunichMainz
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
20 conceded
05/10
05/16
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/30
Bayern Munich
9/10 over 2.5
34 scored
12 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/18
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 78%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 1-3
- 0-2
- 0-3
- 1-1
- 1-4
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Mainz | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz | 8%11.90 | 5%20.88 | 6%17.21 |
| Level | 4%22.32 | 8%12.15 | 22%4.53 |
| Bayern Munich | 1%— | 3%33.11 | 42%2.37 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Mainz wins6Bayern Munich wins- L Mainz vs Bayern Munich 3-4
- D Bayern Munich vs Mainz 2-2
- L Bayern Munich vs Mainz 3-0
- W Mainz vs Bayern Munich 2-1
- L Bayern Munich vs Mainz 8-1
- L Mainz vs Bayern Munich 1-3
- W Mainz vs Bayern Munich 3-1
- L Bayern Munich vs Mainz 6-2
- W Mainz vs Bayern Munich 3-1
- L Bayern Munich vs Mainz 2-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Mainz's side.