Mainz
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.83
Union Berlin
22%
Fair odds 4.64
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Mainz | Draw | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Mainz
Mainz are rated 54 points above Union Berlin (1497 to 1442), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Mainz
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Mainz's chance of winning and takes the same from Union Berlin's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Mainz
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Mainz score 1.3 a match against an average side (11th in Bundesliga); Union Berlin concede 1.4 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Union Berlin
Mainz LLWLW, lost 18 rating points; Union Berlin DDDWL, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Union Berlin
Mainz won 0, drew 4 and lost 6 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MainzUnion BerlinMainz
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
20 conceded
05/10
05/16
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/30
Union Berlin
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
20 conceded
05/10
05/16
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/18
10/10
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Mainz | Draw | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz | 34%2.91 | 5%22.08 | 1%72.99 |
| Level | 18%5.66 | 14%7.33 | 8%12.44 |
| Union Berlin | 3%33.78 | 5%20.79 | 13%7.96 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Mainz wins6Union Berlin wins- L Mainz vs Union Berlin 1-3
- D Union Berlin vs Mainz 2-2
- L Union Berlin vs Mainz 2-1
- D Mainz vs Union Berlin 1-1
- D Mainz vs Union Berlin 1-1
- L Union Berlin vs Mainz 4-1
- L Union Berlin vs Mainz 2-1
- D Mainz vs Union Berlin 0-0
- L Union Berlin vs Mainz 3-1
- L Mainz vs Union Berlin 1-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Mainz's side.