Malaga
27%
Fair odds 3.73
Ath Bilbao
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.12
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Malaga | Draw | Ath Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Elo model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao are rated 109 points above Malaga (1503 to 1394), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Malaga
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Malaga's chance of winning and takes the same from Ath Bilbao's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Ath Bilbao
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Malaga score 1.0 a match against an average side (19th in La Liga); Ath Bilbao concede 1.1 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Ath Bilbao
Malaga LDLDL, lost 16 rating points; Ath Bilbao WWLDD, gained 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MalagaAth BilbaoMalaga
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
19 conceded
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/09
10/18
10/23
10/31
Ath Bilbao
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/27
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Malaga | Draw | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 15%6.52 | 5%20.00 | 3%37.04 |
| Level | 10%9.70 | 15%6.63 | 17%5.98 |
| Ath Bilbao | 2%59.52 | 5%20.75 | 28%3.53 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.