Malaga
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.28Bookmakers 39%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Malaga | Draw | Santander | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Best price on offer | 2.46 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
Team news
- Julen Lobete Out
- Aarón Ochoa Out
- Diego Murillo Out
- Juan Cruz Doubtful
- Pablo Martínez Doubtful
Ángel Recio has recovered from illness and Joaquín Muñoz is back in training; Carlos Puga expected fit despite separate work this week.
- Álvaro Mantilla Out
- Andrés Martín Out
Jorge Salinas returns from suspension and is available; Maguette Gueye had a minor knock but was reported available in one source, though earlier reports flagged him as doubtful and he is absent from predicted XIs.
Allowing for this news: Malaga 44%, draw 24%, Santander 32% (xG 1.75 – 1.46). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: whoscored.com, sportsmole.co.uk, squawka.com, footballwhispers.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Santander
Santander are rated 22 points above Malaga (1416 to 1394), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Malaga
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Malaga's chance of winning and takes the same from Santander's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Malaga
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.5. Malaga score 1.0 a match against an average side (19th in La Liga); Santander concede 1.7 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Malaga LDLDL, lost 16 rating points; Santander LWLDL, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Santander
Bookmakers rate Santander higher than the model does: Malaga 39% against the model's 44%, Santander 34% against 32%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Santander
Malaga won 0, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MalagaSantanderMalaga
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
19 conceded
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/09
10/18
10/23
10/31
08/23
08/28
09/05
09/12
09/16
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 57%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Malaga | Draw | Santander |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 26%3.85 | 5%20.04 | 2%45.05 |
| Level | 15%6.61 | 13%7.79 | 11%9.00 |
| Santander | 3%31.25 | 5%18.28 | 19%5.25 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Malaga wins- D Malaga vs Santander 1-1
- L Santander vs Malaga 3-0
- L Santander vs Malaga 2-1
- D Malaga vs Santander 0-0
- L Malaga vs Santander 0-1
- D Santander vs Malaga 0-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Malaga's side.