Mallorca
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.47
Castellon
32%
Fair odds 3.09
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Mallorca | Draw | Castellon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Mallorca and Castellon are rated almost level (1474 and 1466).
-
Home advantage Favours Mallorca
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Mallorca's chance of winning and takes the same from Castellon's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Mallorca
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Mallorca score 1.1 a match against an average side (6th in La Liga 2); Castellon concede 1.3 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Mallorca WDDWD, gained 10 rating points; Castellon DWWLD, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MallorcaCastellonMallorca
3/10 over 2.5
13 scored
5 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/27
10/04
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/02
Castellon
5/10 over 2.5
22 scored
5 conceded
09/06
09/12
09/19
09/28
10/04
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Mallorca | Draw | Castellon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | 26%3.83 | 6%17.39 | 2%43.67 |
| Level | 13%7.60 | 16%6.29 | 13%7.82 |
| Castellon | 2%55.25 | 4%22.73 | 18%5.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.