Malmo FF
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.98
Brommapojkarna
25%
Fair odds 4.04
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Malmo FF | Draw | Brommapojkarna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 25% | 25% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Malmo FF
Malmo FF are rated 57 points above Brommapojkarna (1394 to 1336), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Malmo FF
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Malmo FF's chance of winning and takes the same from Brommapojkarna's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Malmo FF
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.2. Malmo FF score 0.9 a match against an average side (7th in Allsvenskan); Brommapojkarna concede 1.8 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Malmo FF LWDLW, barely moved; Brommapojkarna LDWLW, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Malmo FF
Malmo FF won 5, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Malmo FFBrommapojkarnaMalmo FF
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
9 conceded
08/24
08/31
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/12
10/18
10/23
10/28
11/01
Brommapojkarna
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
17 conceded
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/24
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Malmo FF | Draw | Brommapojkarna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF | 30%3.30 | 4%24.75 | 1%86.21 |
| Level | 17%5.77 | 14%7.18 | 8%12.74 |
| Brommapojkarna | 3%29.41 | 6%17.21 | 16%6.19 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Malmo FF wins1Brommapojkarna wins- W Brommapojkarna vs Malmo FF 1-2
- W Brommapojkarna vs Malmo FF 2-3
- L Malmo FF vs Brommapojkarna 1-2
- W Malmo FF vs Brommapojkarna 2-1
- D Brommapojkarna vs Malmo FF 2-2
- W Malmo FF vs Brommapojkarna 2-1
- W Brommapojkarna vs Malmo FF 1-2
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Malmo FF's side.