Man City
Model pick
73%
Fair odds 1.36Bookmakers 76%
Napoli
11%
Fair odds 9.11Bookmakers 9%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Man City | Draw | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Elo model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Best price on offer | 1.27 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Man City
Man City are rated 136 points above Napoli (1710 to 1574), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Man City
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Man City's chance of winning and takes the same from Napoli's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Man City
Expected goals 2.7 to 1.0. Man City score 2.2 a match against an average side (1st in Premier League); Napoli concede 1.1 (7th best defence in Serie A).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Man City WLLWW, barely moved; Napoli LLWDW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Man City
Bookmakers rate Man City higher than the model does: Man City 76% against the model's 73%, Napoli 9% against 11%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Man CityNapoliMan City
7/10 over 2.5
25 scored
15 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Napoli
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
18 conceded
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/28
11/01
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 70%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Man City | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 36%2.81 | 2%51.55 | 0%— |
| Level | 30%3.35 | 8%12.50 | 4%27.47 |
| Napoli | 8%12.06 | 5%19.38 | 7%14.08 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Man City wins0Napoli wins- W Man City vs Napoli 2-0
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Man City's side.