Man United
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.21
Brentford
30%
Fair odds 3.34
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Man United | Draw | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Brentford
Brentford are rated 12 points above Man United (1592 to 1579), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Man United
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Man United's chance of winning and takes the same from Brentford's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Man United
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.3. Man United score 1.6 a match against an average side (8th in Premier League); Brentford concede 1.0 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Brentford
Man United WLLLD, lost 28 rating points; Brentford WDLDW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Man United
Man United won 6, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Man UnitedBrentfordMan United
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/18
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Brentford
5/10 over 2.5
17 scored
10 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Man United | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man United | 29%3.46 | 6%16.47 | 3%34.97 |
| Level | 15%6.85 | 14%7.33 | 13%7.87 |
| Brentford | 2%44.44 | 4%24.04 | 15%6.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Man United wins3Brentford wins- W Man United vs Brentford 2-1
- L Brentford vs Man United 3-1
- L Brentford vs Man United 4-3
- W Man United vs Brentford 2-1
- D Brentford vs Man United 1-1
- W Man United vs Brentford 2-1
- W Man United vs Brentford 1-0
- L Brentford vs Man United 4-0
- W Man United vs Brentford 3-0
- W Brentford vs Man United 1-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Man United's side.