Millwall
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.87
Burnley
22%
Fair odds 4.52
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Millwall | Draw | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Millwall
Millwall are rated 62 points above Burnley (1496 to 1434), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Millwall
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Millwall's chance of winning and takes the same from Burnley's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Millwall
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Millwall score 1.2 a match against an average side (10th in Championship); Burnley concede 1.5 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Millwall LWLDL, lost 21 rating points; Burnley DDLLD, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Millwall won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MillwallBurnleyMillwall
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Burnley
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/16
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Millwall | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 31%3.21 | 4%23.92 | 1%78.12 |
| Level | 19%5.14 | 14%7.07 | 8%11.95 |
| Burnley | 3%29.67 | 5%19.38 | 13%7.75 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Millwall wins2Burnley wins- L Burnley vs Millwall 3-1
- W Millwall vs Burnley 1-0
- D Millwall vs Burnley 1-1
- L Burnley vs Millwall 2-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Millwall's side.