Milton Keynes Dons
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.34
Notts County
31%
Fair odds 3.26
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Milton Keynes Dons | Draw | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 27% | 31% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons are rated 18 points above Notts County (1306 to 1287), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Milton Keynes Dons
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Milton Keynes Dons's chance of winning and takes the same from Notts County's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Milton Keynes Dons
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.2. Milton Keynes Dons score 0.9 a match against an average side (13th in League One); Notts County concede 1.7 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Milton Keynes Dons WWWLW, gained 36 rating points; Notts County WDWLL, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Notts County
Milton Keynes Dons won 0, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Milton Keynes DonsNotts CountyMilton Keynes Dons
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
17 conceded
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/17
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Notts County
2/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Milton Keynes Dons | Draw | Notts County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons | 26%3.87 | 5%18.83 | 2%47.39 |
| Level | 15%6.63 | 15%6.46 | 12%8.16 |
| Notts County | 2%43.67 | 5%21.14 | 17%5.92 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Milton Keynes Dons wins3Notts County wins- D Milton Keynes Dons vs Notts County 1-1
- L Notts County vs Milton Keynes Dons 3-2
- L Notts County vs Milton Keynes Dons 3-0
- L Milton Keynes Dons vs Notts County 0-2
- D Notts County vs Milton Keynes Dons 3-3
- D Milton Keynes Dons vs Notts County 1-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Milton Keynes Dons's side.